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Interactions between sediment delivery, channel change, climate change and flood risk in a temperate upland environment

Lane, S.N.; Tayefi, V.; Reid, S.C.; Yu, D.; Hardy, R.J.

Authors

S.N. Lane

V. Tayefi

S.C. Reid

D. Yu

R.J. Hardy



Abstract

This paper uses numerical simulation of flood inundation based on a coupled one-dimensional-two-dimensional treatment to explore the impacts upon flood extent of both long-term climate changes, predicted to the 2050s and 2080s, and short-term river channel changes in response to sediment delivery, for a temperate upland gravel-bed river. Results show that 16 months of measured in-channel sedimentation in an upland gravel-bed river cause about half of the increase in inundation extent that was simulated to arise from climate change. Consideration of the joint impacts of climate change and sedimentation emphasized the non-linear nature of system response, and the possibly severe and synergistic effects that come from combined direct effects of climate change and sediment delivery. Such effects are likely to be exacerbated further as a result of the impacts of climate change upon coarse sediment delivery. In generic terms, these processes are commonly overlooked in flood risk mapping exercises and are likely to be important in any river system where there are high rates of sediment delivery and long-term transfer of sediment to floodplain storage (i.e. alluviation involving active channel aggradation and migration). Similarly, attempts to reduce channel migration through river bank stabilization are likely to exacerbate this process as without bank erosion, channel capacity cannot be maintained. Finally, many flood risk mapping studies rely upon calibration based upon combining contemporary bed surveys with historical flood outlines, and this will lead to underestimation of the magnitude and frequency of floodplain inundation in an aggrading system for a flood of a given magnitude.

Citation

Lane, S., Tayefi, V., Reid, S., Yu, D., & Hardy, R. (2007). Interactions between sediment delivery, channel change, climate change and flood risk in a temperate upland environment. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 32(3), 429-446. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1404

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2007-03
Deposit Date Apr 4, 2008
Journal Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
Print ISSN 0197-9337
Electronic ISSN 1096-9837
Publisher British Society for Geomorphology
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 32
Issue 3
Pages 429-446
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1404
Keywords Flood risk mapping, Flood inundation, Sediment delivery, Gravel-bed rivers.