Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment

Craig, Peter S.; Hickey, Graeme L.; Luttik, Robert; Hart, Andy

doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x

Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment

Craig, Peter S.; Hickey, Graeme L.; Luttik, Robert; Hart, Andy

Authors

Professor Peter Craig p.s.craig@durham.ac.uk
Professor

Graeme L. Hickey

Robert Luttik

Andy Hart

Abstract

Current ecotoxicological risk assessment for chemical substances is based on the assumption that tolerances of all species in a specified ecological community are a priori exchangeable for each new substance. We demonstrate non-exchangeability by using a large database of tolerances to pesticides for fish species and extend the standard statistical model for species tolerances to allow for the presence of a single species which is considered non-exchangeable with others. We show how to estimate parameters and adjust decision rules that are used in ecotoxicological risk management. Effects of parameter uncertainty are explored and our model is compared with a previously published less tractable alternative. We conclude that the model and decision rules that we propose are pragmatic compromises between conflicting needs for more realistic modelling and for straightforwardly applicable decision rules.

Citation

Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R., & Hart, A. (2012). Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 175(1), 243-262. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x

Journal Article Type	Article
Publication Date	Jan 1, 2012
Deposit Date	Feb 25, 2011
Publicly Available Date	Sep 6, 2013
Journal	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
Print ISSN	0964-1998
Electronic ISSN	1467-985X
Publisher	Royal Statistical Society
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	175
Issue	1
Pages	243-262
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.00716.x
Keywords	Assessment factors, ecotoxicology, exchangeability, risk assessment, species sensitivity

Files

Accepted Journal Article (356 Kb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Craig, P. S., Hickey, G. L., Luttik, R. and Hart, A. (2012), Species non-exchangeability in probabilistic ecotoxicological risk assessment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 175 (1): 243–262, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00716.x. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.