The role of risk modelling in the Great Britain transmission planning and operational standards

Dent, C.J.; Bell, K.R.W.; Richards, A.W.; Zachary, S.; Eager, D.; Harrison, G.P.; Bialek, J.W.

doi:10.1109/pmaps.2010.5528890

The role of risk modelling in the Great Britain transmission planning and operational standards

Dent, C.J.; Bell, K.R.W.; Richards, A.W.; Zachary, S.; Eager, D.; Harrison, G.P.; Bialek, J.W.

Authors

C.J. Dent

K.R.W. Bell

A.W. Richards

S. Zachary

D. Eager

G.P. Harrison

J.W. Bialek

Abstract

This paper presents three case studies of risk-based standards from Great Britain: the pre-liberalisation generation planning standard, the present method for setting operational reserve requirements, and the transmission network planning standard. These illustrate a number of key issues in developing planning and operational standards for wind, including: the benefits of risk-based standards in adapting to new circumstances; the importance of considering model assumptions carefully when interpreting risk calculations; the difficulty in calculating the cost of risk; and the need to account for uncertainty in system background. The transmission network planning standard is studied in particular detail, especially how the present combination of deterministic and probabilistic sections might evolve for use in a future power system with a very high renewable penetration.

Citation

Dent, C., Bell, K., Richards, A., Zachary, S., Eager, D., Harrison, G., & Bialek, J. (2010). The role of risk modelling in the Great Britain transmission planning and operational standards. In 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2010) : Singapore, 14-17 June 2010 (325-330). https://doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2010.5528890

Conference Name	Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on
Conference Location	Singapore
Publication Date	Jul 29, 2010
Deposit Date	Aug 13, 2010
Publicly Available Date	Feb 27, 2014
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages	325-330
Book Title	2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2010) : Singapore, 14-17 June 2010.
ISBN	9781424457205
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2010.5528890
Keywords	Power system planning, Power system operation, Power system reliability, Risk analysis, Wind energy.

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