Modelling alcohol problems: Total recovery

Abstract

Binge drinking in the UK is an increasing problem, resulting in negative health, social and economic effects. Mathematical modelling allows for future predictions to be made and may provide valuable information regarding how to approach solving the problem of binge drinking in the UK. We develop a 3-equation model for alcohol problems, specifically binge drinking, which allows for total recovery. Individuals are split into those that are susceptible to developing an alcohol problem, those with an alcohol problem and those in treatment. We find that the model has two equilibrium points: one without alcohol problems and one where alcohol problems are endemic in the population. We compare our results with those of an existing model that does not allow for total recovery. We show that without total recovery, the threshold for alcohol problems to become endemic in the population is lowered. The endemic equilibrium solution is also affected, with an increased proportion of the population in the treatment class and a decreased proportion in the susceptible class. Including totally recovery does not determine whether the proportion of individuals with alcohol problems increases or decreases, however it does effect the size of the change. Parameter estimates are made from information regarding binge drinking where we find an increase in the recovery rate decreases the proportion of binge drinkers in the population.