Discontinuity waves as tipping points: Applications to biological & sociological systems

Abstract

The `tipping point' phenomenon is discussed as a mathematical object, and related to the behaviour of non-linear discontinuity waves in the dynamics of topical sociological and biological problems. The theory of such waves is applied to two illustrative systems in particular: a crowd-continuum model of pedestrian (or traffic) flow; and an hyperbolic reaction-diffusion model for the spread of the hantavirus infection (a disease carried by rodents). In the former, we analyse propagating acceleration waves, demonstrating how blow-up of the wave amplitude might indicate formation of a `human-shock', that is, a `tipping point' transition between safe pedestrian flow, and a state of overcrowding. While in the latter, we examine how travelling waves (of both acceleration and shock type) can be used to describe the advance of a hantavirus infection-front. Results from our investigation of crowd models also apply to equivalent descriptions of traffic flow, a context in which acceleration wave blow-up can be interpreted as emergence of the `phantom congestion' phenomenon, and `stop-start' traffic motion obeys a form of wave propagation.