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A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations

Paton, Lewis; Troffaes, Matthias C.M.; Boatman, Nigel; Hussein, Mohamud; Hart, Andy

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Authors

Lewis Paton

Nigel Boatman

Mohamud Hussein

Andy Hart



Contributors

T. Augustin
Editor

S. Doria
Editor

E. Miranda
Editor

E. Quaeghebeur
Editor

Abstract

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem.

Citation

Paton, L., Troffaes, M. C., Boatman, N., Hussein, M., & Hart, A. (2015). A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations. In T. Augustin, S. Doria, E. Miranda, & E. Quaeghebeur (Eds.), ISIPTA ’15 : proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability : Theories and Applications, 20-24 July 2015, Pescara, Italy (217-226)

Conference Name ISIPTA 2015, 9th international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications.
Conference Location Pescara, Italy
Start Date Jul 20, 2015
End Date Jul 24, 2015
Acceptance Date May 19, 2015
Publication Date Jul 24, 2015
Deposit Date Feb 18, 2015
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Pages 217-226
Book Title ISIPTA ’15 : proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability : Theories and Applications, 20-24 July 2015, Pescara, Italy.
Keywords Multinomial logistic regression, Stochastic process, Robust Bayesian, Conjugate, Maximum likelihood, Crop, Decision.
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1152551
Publisher URL http://www.sipta.org/isipta15/?pag=proceedings
Additional Information 20-24 July 2015

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