Different varieties of uncertainty in human decision-making

Bland, A.R.; Schaefer, A.

doi:10.3389/fnins.2012.00085

Different varieties of uncertainty in human decision-making

Bland, A.R.; Schaefer, A.

Authors

A.R. Bland

A. Schaefer

Abstract

The study of uncertainty in decision-making is receiving greater attention in the fields of cognitive and computational neuroscience. Several lines of evidence are beginning to elucidate different variants of uncertainty. Particularly, risk, ambiguity, and expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty are well articulated in the literature. In this article we review both empirical and theoretical evidence arguing for the potential distinction between three forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty, and volatility. Particular attention will be devoted to exploring the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility which has been less appreciated in the literature. This includes evidence mainly from neuroimaging, neuromodulation, and electrophysiological studies. We further address the possible differentiation of cognitive control mechanisms used to deal with these forms of uncertainty. Finally, we explore whether the dual modes of control theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.

Citation

Bland, A., & Schaefer, A. (2012). Different varieties of uncertainty in human decision-making. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 6, Article 85. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00085

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	May 21, 2012
Publication Date	Jun 8, 2012
Deposit Date	May 29, 2012
Publicly Available Date	Sep 17, 2015
Journal	Frontiers in Neuroscience
Print ISSN	1662-4548
Electronic ISSN	1662-453X
Publisher	Frontiers Media
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	6
Article Number	85
DOI	https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00085
Keywords	Uncertainty, Unexpected uncertainty, Volatility, Decision-making.

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Copyright Statement
© 2012 Bland and Schaefer. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial License, which permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in other forums, provided the original authors and source are credited.