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Presidential Address: Will This Policy Work for You? Predicting Effectiveness Better: How Philosophy Helps

Cartwright, N.

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Abstract

There is a takeover movement fast gaining influence in development economics, a movement that demands that predictions about development outcomes be based on randomized controlled trials. The problem it takes up—of using evidence of efficacy from good studies to predict whether a policy will be effective if we implement it—is a general one, and affects us all. My discussion is the result of a long struggle to develop the right concepts to deal with the problem of warranting effectiveness predictions. Whether I have it right or not, these are questions of vast social importance that philosophers of science can, and should, help answer.

Citation

Cartwright, N. (2012). Presidential Address: Will This Policy Work for You? Predicting Effectiveness Better: How Philosophy Helps. Philosophy of Science, 79(5), 973-989. https://doi.org/10.1086/668041

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Dec 1, 2012
Deposit Date Sep 17, 2015
Publicly Available Date Sep 21, 2015
Journal Philosophy of Science
Print ISSN 0031-8248
Electronic ISSN 1539-767X
Publisher Philosophy of Science Association
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 79
Issue 5
Pages 973-989
DOI https://doi.org/10.1086/668041

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Copyright Statement
© 2012 by the Philosophy of Science Association. All rights reserved.





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