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Predicting what will happen when we act. What counts for warrant?

Cartwright, N.

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Abstract

To what extent do the results of randomized controlled trials inform our predictions about the effectiveness of potential policy interventions? This crucial question is often overlooked in discussions about evidence-based policy. The view I defend is that the arguments that lead from the claim that a program works somewhere to a prediction about the effectiveness of this program as it will be implemented here rests on many premises, most of which cannot be justified by the results of randomized controlled trials. Randomized controlled trials only provide indirect evidence for effectiveness, and we need much more than just randomized- controlled-trial results to make reliable predictions.

Citation

Cartwright, N. (2011). Predicting what will happen when we act. What counts for warrant?. Preventive Medicine, 53(4-5), 221-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2011.08.011

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Oct 1, 2011
Deposit Date Sep 17, 2015
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Preventive Medicine
Print ISSN 0091-7435
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 53
Issue 4-5
Pages 221-224
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2011.08.011
Keywords Effectiveness, Randomized controlled trial, Warrant, Evidence-based policy, Argument.

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