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Modeling mitigation and adaptation policies to predict their effectiveness : the limits of randomized controlled trials.

Marcellesi, A. and Cartwright, N. (2018) 'Modeling mitigation and adaptation policies to predict their effectiveness : the limits of randomized controlled trials.', in Climate modelling : philosophical and conceptual issues. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 449-480.

Abstract

Policies to combat climate change should be supported by evidence regarding their effectiveness. But what kind of evidence is that? And what tools should one use to gather such evidence? Many argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard when it comes to evaluating the effects of policies. As a result, there has been a push for climate change policies to be evaluated using RCTs. We argue that this push is misguided. After explaining why RCTs are thought to be the gold standard, we use examples of mitigation and adaptation policies to show that RCTs provide, at best, one piece of the evidential puzzle one needs to assemble for well-supported decisions regarding climate change policies.

Item Type:Book chapter
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Status:Peer-reviewed
Publisher Web site:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_15
Publisher statement:Marcellesi, A. & Cartwright, N. (2018). Modeling mitigation and adaptation policies to predict their effectiveness: The limits of randomized controlled trials. In Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues. Editors: Lloyd, E. & Winsberg, E. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, reproduced with permission of Palgrave Macmillan. This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9783319650579
Date accepted:No date available
Date deposited:29 September 2015
Date of first online publication:14 February 2018
Date first made open access:14 February 2020

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