False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment

Parker, W.S.; Risbey, J.S.

doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0453

False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment

Parker, W.S.; Risbey, J.S.

Authors

W.S. Parker

J.S. Risbey

Abstract

An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.

Citation

Parker, W., & Risbey, J. (2015). False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373(2055), Article 20140453. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0453

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Aug 26, 2015
Online Publication Date	Nov 28, 2015
Publication Date	Nov 1, 2015
Deposit Date	Nov 5, 2015
Publicly Available Date	Oct 12, 2016
Journal	Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.
Print ISSN	1364-503X
Electronic ISSN	1471-2962
Publisher	The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	373
Issue	2055
Article Number	20140453
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0453