Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causality and causal inference in economics

Reiss, Julian

doi:10.1080/1350178x.2016.1189127

Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causality and causal inference in economics

Reiss, Julian

Authors

Julian Reiss

Abstract

This paper examines Patrick Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causality understood as a theory of causal inference, and draws some lessons for empirical economics and contemporary debates in the foundations of econometrics. It argues that a standard method of empirical economics, multiple regression, is inadequate for most but the simplest applications, that the Bayes’ nets approach, which can be understood as a generalisation of Suppes’ theory, constitutes a considerable improvement but is still subject to important limitations, and that the currently fashionable ‘design-based approach’ suffers from the same flaws Suppes anticipated a long time ago. It then sketches an alternative in response, one that differs drastically from the formalisms Suppes endorsed but is consistent with his pragmatic general take on science.

Citation

Reiss, J. (2016). Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causality and causal inference in economics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 23(3), 289-304. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178x.2016.1189127

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Feb 2, 2016
Online Publication Date	Jul 18, 2016
Publication Date	Jul 18, 2016
Deposit Date	Feb 2, 2016
Publicly Available Date	Jan 18, 2018
Journal	Journal of Economic Methodology
Print ISSN	1350-178X
Electronic ISSN	1469-9427
Publisher	Taylor and Francis Group
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	23
Issue	3
Pages	289-304
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178x.2016.1189127

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Copyright Statement
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Journal of Economic Methodology on 18/07/2016, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1350178x.2016.1189127.