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Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary

Cartwright, N

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Authors



Contributors

J Keim Campbell
Editor

M.O O'Rourke
Editor

H.S Silverman
Editor

Abstract

Counterfactuals are a hot topic in economics today, at least among economists concerned with methodology. I shall argue that on the whole this is a mistake. Usually the counterfactuals on offer are proposed as causal surrogates. But at best they provide a “sometimes” way for finding out about causal relations, not a stand-in for them. I say a “sometimes way” because they do so only in very special -- and rare -- kinds of systems. Otherwise they are irrelevant to establishing facts about causation. On the other hand, viewed just as straight counterfactuals, they are a washout as well. For they are rarely an answer to any genuine “What if…?” questions, questions of the kind we pose in planning and evaluation. For these two reasons I call the counterfactuals of recent interest in economics, impostor counterfactuals.

Citation

Cartwright, N. (2007). Counterfactuals in Economics: A Commentary. In J. Keim Campbell, M. O'Rourke, & H. Silverman (Eds.), Causation and explanation (191-216). Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press

Publication Date Jan 1, 2007
Deposit Date Sep 22, 2015
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press
Pages 191-216
Book Title Causation and explanation.
Publisher URL https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/causation-and-explanation
Additional Information Also in N. Cartwright (2007) Hunting Causes and Using Them.

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Accepted Book Chapter (378 Kb)
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Copyright Statement
Deposited with kind permission of the MIT Press for non-commercial, scholarly use only. This chapter was originally published in J.K. Campbell, M. O'Rourke, and H.S. Silverstein (Eds.), Causation and Explanation, © 2007 MIT, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, (pp. 191-216).





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