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Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini, L.M.; Baldini, J.U.L.; McElwaine, J.; Frappier, A.B.; Asmerom, Y.; Liu, K.B.; Prufer, K.; Ridley, H.E.; Polyak, V.; Kennett, D.J.; Macpherson, C.G.; Aquino, V.V.; Awe, J.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.

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Authors

L.M. Baldini

J.U.L. Baldini

A.B. Frappier

Y. Asmerom

K.B. Liu

K. Prufer

H.E. Ridley

V. Polyak

D.J. Kennett

C.G. Macpherson

V.V. Aquino

J. Awe

S.F.M. Breitenbach



Contributors

Abstract

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Citation

Baldini, L., Baldini, J., McElwaine, J., Frappier, A., Asmerom, Y., Liu, K., …Breitenbach, S. (2016). Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports, 6, Article 37522. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 31, 2016
Online Publication Date Nov 23, 2016
Publication Date Nov 23, 2016
Deposit Date Nov 23, 2016
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Scientific Reports
Publisher Nature Research
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 6
Article Number 37522
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522

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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/




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