L.M. Baldini
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries
Baldini, L.M.; Baldini, J.U.L.; McElwaine, J.; Frappier, A.B.; Asmerom, Y.; Liu, K.B.; Prufer, K.; Ridley, H.E.; Polyak, V.; Kennett, D.J.; Macpherson, C.G.; Aquino, V.V.; Awe, J.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.
Authors
J.U.L. Baldini
Professor Jim Mcelwaine james.mcelwaine@durham.ac.uk
Professor
A.B. Frappier
Y. Asmerom
K.B. Liu
K. Prufer
H.E. Ridley
V. Polyak
D.J. Kennett
C.G. Macpherson
V.V. Aquino
J. Awe
S.F.M. Breitenbach
Contributors
Professor James Baldini james.baldini@durham.ac.uk
Other
Abstract
Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.
Citation
Baldini, L., Baldini, J., McElwaine, J., Frappier, A., Asmerom, Y., Liu, K., …Breitenbach, S. (2016). Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports, 6, Article 37522. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Oct 31, 2016 |
Online Publication Date | Nov 23, 2016 |
Publication Date | Nov 23, 2016 |
Deposit Date | Nov 23, 2016 |
Publicly Available Date | Mar 29, 2024 |
Journal | Scientific Reports |
Publisher | Nature Research |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 6 |
Article Number | 37522 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 |
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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