Smirnov, D. A. and Breitenbach, S. F. M. and Feulner, G. and Lechleitner, F.A. and Prufer, K.M. and Baldini, J.U.L. and Marwan, N. and Kurths, J. (2017) 'A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.', Scientific reports., 7 . p. 11131.
Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.
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|Publisher Web site:||https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11340-8|
|Publisher statement:||This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.|
|Date accepted:||18 July 2017|
|Date deposited:||13 September 2017|
|Date of first online publication:||11 September 2017|
|Date first made open access:||No date available|
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