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Dynamics and Determinants of Credit Risk Discovery: Evidence from CDS and Stock Markets

Chau, F.; Han, C.; Shi, S.

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Authors

C. Han

S. Shi



Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics and drivers of credit risk discovery between stock and CDS markets in the US. Our research is distinguished from the existing literature in three aspects: 1) we employ an improved method to measure the information share; 2) we discover new drivers of credit risk discovery; and 3) we assess the impact of central clearing counterparty (CCP) on the CDS market. By using the generalized information share (GIS) by Lien and Shrestha (2014), we address the issue that the CDS and stock prices do not have one-to-one cointegration relation. The empirical results support the use of GIS instead of more conventional measures. We also find that eliminating transitory price components increases the information share of the CDS market in the earlier period of the sample. The economic condition and funding cost turn out to affect the information share of the CDS market negatively. Another interesting finding is that the CDS of investment grade firms possess higher information shares compared to speculative grade firms. Finally, CCP seems to reduce the information share of CDS, which suggests that the CDS market is driven largely by insider trading.

Citation

Chau, F., Han, C., & Shi, S. (2018). Dynamics and Determinants of Credit Risk Discovery: Evidence from CDS and Stock Markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 55, 156-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.11.004

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 28, 2017
Online Publication Date Dec 2, 2017
Publication Date Jan 1, 2018
Deposit Date Nov 29, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal International Review of Financial Analysis
Print ISSN 1057-5219
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 55
Pages 156-169
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.11.004
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1343539

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