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The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Aparicio, S.; Urbano, D.; Gómez, D.

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Authors

S. Aparicio

D. Urbano

D. Gómez



Abstract

Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these analyses, new Colombian scenarios are discussed, taking into account intentionality towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Following the entrepreneurship research, it is suggested that innovative entrepreneurial activity is linked to long-term economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the role of innovative entrepreneurship in Colombian business cycle scenarios using system dynamics (SD) modelling. Here, we approach futures studies, testing dynamic hypotheses concerning development based on societal and socioeconomic integration, in which innovative entrepreneurship is highly relevant. The model, supported by circular flow analysis and Schumpeterian theory, shows how this type of entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable economic growth during the simulation period (2003–2032). To achieve a 6.77% average growth rate (the higher scenario), policies regarding knowledge transfer from specialized foreign individuals, incumbent firms and universities, as well as incentives for entrepreneurial societies and collectivism, are discussed.

Citation

Aparicio, S., Urbano, D., & Gómez, D. (2016). The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: A system dynamics approach. Futures, 81, 130-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.004

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 16, 2016
Online Publication Date Mar 2, 2016
Publication Date Aug 1, 2016
Deposit Date Dec 7, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Futures
Print ISSN 0016-3287
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 81
Pages 130-147
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.004
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1369973

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