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Contingency, causation, and adaptive inference

Over, D.E.; Green, D.W.

Authors

D.E. Over

D.W. Green



Abstract

In contingency judgment tasks involving 2 event types, individuals weight the a and b cells of a 2 X 2 contingency table more than the c and d cells. Some theorists have argued that they can provide normative justifications For this weighting and that the weighting reflects simple heuristics that are adaptive in the real world. The authors show that, to avoid error, individual judgments about real contingencies should be more subtle than these supposedly adaptive heuristics allow.

Citation

Over, D., & Green, D. (2001). Contingency, causation, and adaptive inference. Psychological Review, 108(3), 682-684. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.108.3.682

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2001-07
Deposit Date Jan 22, 2009
Journal Psychological Review
Print ISSN 0033-295X
Publisher American Psychological Association
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 108
Issue 3
Pages 682-684
DOI https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.108.3.682
Keywords Covariation, Information, Integration, Judgements.
Publisher URL http://content.apa.org/journals/rev/108/3/682

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