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Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption

Rahman, M.H.; Anbarci, N.; Bhattacharya, P.S.; Ulubaşoğlu, M.A.

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Authors

P.S. Bhattacharya

M.A. Ulubaşoğlu



Abstract

Using a new dataset of extreme rainfall covering 130 countries from 1979 to 2009, this paper investigates whether and how extreme rainfall-driven flooding affects democratic conditions. Our key finding indicates that extreme rainfall-induced flooding exerts two opposing effects on democracy. On one hand, flooding leads to corruption in the chains of emergency relief distribution and other post-disaster assistance, which in turn impels the citizenry to demand more democracy. On the other hand, flooding induces autocratic tendencies in incumbent regimes because efficient post-disaster management with no dissent, chaos or plunder might require government to undertake repressive actions. The net estimated effect is an improvement in democratic conditions.

Citation

Rahman, M., Anbarci, N., Bhattacharya, P., & Ulubaşoğlu, M. (2017). Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption. Public Choice, 171(3-4), 331-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 1, 2017
Online Publication Date Mar 9, 2017
Publication Date Mar 9, 2017
Deposit Date Aug 16, 2018
Publicly Available Date Aug 29, 2018
Journal Public Choice
Print ISSN 0048-5829
Electronic ISSN 1573-7101
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 171
Issue 3-4
Pages 331-358
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1323081

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