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Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe

Cusack, Jeremy J.; Duthie, A. Brad; Rakotonarivo, O. Sarobidy; Pozo, Rocío A.; Mason, Tom H.E.; Månsson, Johan; Nilsson, Lovisa; Tombre, Ingunn M.; Eythórsson, Einar; Madsen, Jesper; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hearn, Richard D.; Redpath, Steve; Bunnefeld, Nils

Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe Thumbnail


Authors

Jeremy J. Cusack

A. Brad Duthie

O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo

Rocío A. Pozo

Tom H.E. Mason

Johan Månsson

Lovisa Nilsson

Ingunn M. Tombre

Einar Eythórsson

Jesper Madsen

Ayesha Tulloch

Richard D. Hearn

Steve Redpath

Nils Bunnefeld



Abstract

The management of conflicts between wildlife conservation and agricultural practices often involves the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the cost of wildlife impacts on crops. Vital to the success of these strategies is the perception that changes in management efforts are synchronized relative to changes in impact levels, yet this expectation is never evaluated. We assess the level of synchrony between time series of population counts and management effort in the context of conflicts between agriculture and five populations of large grazing birds in northern Europe. We reveal inconsistent patterns of synchrony and asynchrony between changes in population counts and impact management effort relating to population harvesting, monetary payments, or scaring practices. This variation is likely due to differing management aims, the existence of lags between management decisions and population monitoring, and the inconsistent use of predictive models across case studies. Overall, our findings highlight the need for more adaptive and timely responses of management to changes in target species numbers so as not to unexpectedly increase social conflicts and jeopardize the status of wildlife populations.

Citation

Cusack, J. J., Duthie, A. B., Rakotonarivo, O. S., Pozo, R. A., Mason, T. H., Månsson, J., …Bunnefeld, N. (2019). Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe. Conservation Letters, 12(1), Article e12450. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12450

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 4, 2018
Online Publication Date Mar 8, 2018
Publication Date Jan 31, 2019
Deposit Date Mar 1, 2019
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Conservation Letters
Publisher Society for Conservation Biology
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 12
Issue 1
Article Number e12450
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12450

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.




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