Cookies

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. By continuing to browse this repository, you give consent for essential cookies to be used. You can read more about our Privacy and Cookie Policy.


Durham Research Online
You are in:

Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.

Thomas, C. J. and Davies, G. and Dunn, C. E. (2004) 'Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.', Trends in parasitology., 20 (5). pp. 216-220.

Abstract

Our models indicate that in the next 30–40 years, the effects of climate change on stable falciparum malaria zones in Africa are probably complex and spatially heterogeneous, and that range contractions are more likely than expansions. Notably, we did not find evidence that the highlands are particularly vulnerable to change in this period. It is only by the second half of this century that increases in the potential for stable transmission in the highlands due to climate change were projected to be strong and, even here, the response was patchy. While not denying the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce long-term adverse impact, we suggest that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread expansion in the distribution of stable malaria in Africa during the next few decades.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:
Full text:Full text not available from this repository.
Publisher Web site:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2004.03.001
Record Created:04 Apr 2007
Last Modified:08 Apr 2009 16:29

Social bookmarking: del.icio.usConnoteaBibSonomyCiteULikeFacebookTwitterExport: EndNote, Zotero | BibTex
Usage statisticsLook up in GoogleScholar | Find in a UK Library