Unconventional fuel pathways for decarbonizing the electrical power generation in Malaysia by 2050

Abstract

The importance of this research is to provide a long-term foresight for Malaysia to achieve a low carbon power sector by 2050 through the implementation of unconventional fuel diversification policies. The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System (TIMES) was deployed to model the three tested scenarios, namely the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the nuclear (NUC2) scenario in which the 2.00 GW nuclear power is added to the reference energy system, and the renewable plus storage (RNW6S7) scenario that integrated 6 renewable technologies with 7 days of pump hydro storage capacity. An economic assessment on two baseload power plants is included to evaluate the investment viability. The results indicated that the BAU and NUC2 scenario are unsustainable as the dependency on fossil fuel for electrical power generation by 2050 is still high at 71.92% and 66.83% respectively. Contrariwise, the RNW6S7 scenario revealed a low carbon profile for power generation in Malaysia by 2050, whereby the emissions have declined to a minimum level of 11,490 kt which is equivalent to 92.45% of avoided CO2 in contrast to the BAU levels. The low carbon state is attained due to 98.37% of the generation output is renewable electricity. Finally, the RNW6S7 scenario demonstrated that the CO2 emissions in 2030 will drop by 46.22% relative to the 2005 levels which from the power sector perspective surpassed the Paris Agreement targets.