Generalizing The Conjunction Rule for Aggregating Conflicting Expert Opinions

Troffaes, Matthias C.M.

doi:10.1002/int.20140

Generalizing The Conjunction Rule for Aggregating Conflicting Expert Opinions

Troffaes, Matthias C.M.

Authors

Professor Matthias Troffaes matthias.troffaes@durham.ac.uk
Professor

Abstract

In multiagent expert systems, the conjunction rule is commonly used to combine expert information represented by imprecise probabilities. However, it is well known that this rule cannot be applied in the case of expert conflict. In this article, we propose to resolve expert conflict by means of a second-order imprecise probability model. The essential idea underlying the model is a notion of behavioral trust. We construct a simple linear programming algorithm for calculating the aggregate. This algorithm explains the proposed aggregation method as a generalized conjunction rule. It also provides an elegant operational interpretation of the imprecise second-order assessments, and thus overcomes the problems of interpretation that are so common in hierarchical uncertainty models.

Citation

Troffaes, M. C. (2006). Generalizing The Conjunction Rule for Aggregating Conflicting Expert Opinions. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 21(3), 361-380. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20140

Journal Article Type	Article
Publication Date	2006-03
Deposit Date	Mar 27, 2008
Publicly Available Date	Jan 15, 2015
Journal	International Journal of Intelligent Systems
Print ISSN	0884-8173
Electronic ISSN	1098-111X
Publisher	Wiley
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	21
Issue	3
Pages	361-380
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20140

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Copyright Statement
This is the accepted version of the following article: Troffaes, M. C. M. (2006) 'Generalizing the conjunction rule for aggregating conflicting expert opinions.', International journal of intelligent systems., 21 (3). pp. 361-380, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/int.20140. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.