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The wane of command. Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizations

Rigterink, Anouk S.

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Abstract

This paper investigates how counterterrorism targeting terrorist leaders affects terrorist attacks. This effect is theoretically ambiguous and depends on whether terrorist groups are modeled as unitary actors or not. The paper exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) “hitting” and “missing” terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone “hit” on their leader compared with after a “miss.” This increase is statistically significant for 3 out of 6 months after a hit, when it ranges between 47.7% and 70.3%. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups and leaders, and the impact of drone hits on the type of attack, terrorist group infighting, and splintering, suggest that principal-agent problems—(new) terrorist leaders struggling to control and discipline their operatives—account for these results better than alternative theoretical explanations.

Citation

Rigterink, A. S. (2021). The wane of command. Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizations. American Political Science Review, 115(1), 31-50. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055420000908

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Aug 31, 2020
Online Publication Date Oct 20, 2020
Publication Date 2021-02
Deposit Date Aug 28, 2020
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal American Political Science Review
Print ISSN 0003-0554
Electronic ISSN 1537-5943
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 115
Issue 1
Pages 31-50
DOI https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055420000908

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Copyright Statement
This article has been published in a revised form in American political science review http://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000908. This version is published under a Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND. No commercial re-distribution or re-use allowed. Derivative works cannot be distributed. © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association.




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