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Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations.

Rougier, J. C. (2007) 'Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations.', Climatic change., 81 (3-4). pp. 247-264.


This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

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Record Created:01 May 2007
Last Modified:08 Apr 2009 16:30

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