Rougier, J. C. (2007) 'Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations.', Climatic change., 81 (3-4). pp. 247-264.
This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.
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|Publisher Web site:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9|
|Record Created:||01 May 2007|
|Last Modified:||08 Apr 2009 16:30|
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