Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

Rougier, J.C.

doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9

Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

Rougier, J.C.

Authors

J.C. Rougier

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

Citation

Rougier, J. (2007). Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations. Climatic Change, 81(3-4), 247-264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9

Journal Article Type	Article
Publication Date	Apr 1, 2007
Deposit Date	May 1, 2007
Journal	Climatic Change
Print ISSN	0165-0009
Electronic ISSN	1573-1480
Publisher	Springer
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	81
Issue	3-4
Pages	247-264
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9
Publisher URL	http://www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/CCfinal.pdf