Investigating the drivers of the unprecedented Chernobyl Power Plant Wildfire in April 2020 and its effects on 137Cs dispersal

Abstract

In this study we explore the conditions that led to the unprecedented wildfire that occurred in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in April 2020 and the effect of this fire on 137Cs dispersal, as wildfires are important drivers of 137Cs re-suspension, with potentially harmful consequences for the receiving ecosystems. We characterised the historical wildfire record between 2000 and 2020 using the MCD64A1.006 MODIS Burned Area Monthly Global 500 m dataset, and assessed the climatic conditions associated with these wildfire events using ERA5-Land reanalysis data. We also examined fire danger indices at the time of these wildfires. We then explored the widespread effects of the April 2020 wildfire on 137Cs re-suspension and subsequent deposition using the NOAA HYSPLIT model, concluding that the impacts of such resuspension on areas further afield were minimal. Results show that climatic conditions leading to severe wildfires are increasing, especially during March and April. High soil-moisture, relative humidity and extreme temperature anomalies are associated with the largest wildfires on record and fire risk indices at the time of the April 2020 fire were higher than for other large fires on record. We have estimated that 3854 GBq of 137Cs re suspended during the CPPF, with atmospheric transport dominant over Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Kazakhstan. The observed increase in large wildfires will have implications for wildfire-driven soil erosion processes, which will further exacerbate the effects of atmospheric-driven 137Cs redistribution.