Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Befani, Barbara; Elsenbroich, Corinna; Badham, Jen

doi:10.1177/1356389020980476

Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Befani, Barbara; Elsenbroich, Corinna; Badham, Jen

Authors

Barbara Befani

Corinna Elsenbroich

Dr Jennifer Badham jennifer.badham@durham.ac.uk
Assistant Professor

Abstract

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

Citation

Befani, B., Elsenbroich, C., & Badham, J. (2021). Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities. Evaluation, 27(1), 102-115. https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389020980476

Journal Article Type	Article
Online Publication Date	Jan 14, 2021
Publication Date	Jan 1, 2021
Deposit Date	Sep 29, 2021
Publicly Available Date	Sep 29, 2021
Journal	Evaluation
Print ISSN	1356-3890
Electronic ISSN	1461-7153
Publisher	SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	27
Issue	1
Pages	102-115
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389020980476

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