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Prior viability assessment for Bayesian analysis

Goldstein, Michael; Seheult, Allan H.

Authors

Michael Goldstein

Allan H. Seheult



Abstract

We address the problem of determining whether the cost of a proposed Bayesian analysis is likely to be justified by the potential benefit. A method is described for identifying the likely order of magnitude benefits from the analysis, and this approach is applied to an example concerning trading on the sugar market.

Citation

Goldstein, M., & Seheult, A. H. (2008). Prior viability assessment for Bayesian analysis. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 138(5), 1271-1286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2007.04.023

Journal Article Type Article
Online Publication Date May 1, 2008
Publication Date May 1, 2008
Deposit Date Feb 15, 2008
Journal Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
Print ISSN 0378-3758
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 138
Issue 5
Pages 1271-1286
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2007.04.023
Keywords Bayes linear analysis, Commodity trading, Preposterior analysis, Price forecasting, Random walk, Temporal sure preference, Value of analysis.

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