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Teaching scenario planning : lessons from practice in academe and business.

Wright, G. and Cairns, G. and Goodwin, P. (2009) 'Teaching scenario planning : lessons from practice in academe and business.', European journal of operational research., 194 (1). pp. 323-335.

Abstract

In this paper, we engage with O’Brien’s [O’Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning – lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709–722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience – based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas – and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of “hard” multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to “soft” scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations – such as lexicographic ranking – where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:OR in strategic planning, Education, Psychology.
Full text:PDF - Accepted Version (348Kb)
Status:Peer-reviewed
Publisher Web site:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.12.003
Record Created:22 May 2009 13:20
Last Modified:10 May 2010 13:25

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