Bayesian approach to sapwood estimates and felling dates in dendrochronology.

Abstract

An improved method of generating sapwood estimates for oak is developed. This suggests a revision of the 95% confidence range from 10–40 to 9–36 rings for trees from southern England. Current methods for estimating felling dates on timbers with incomplete sapwood do not generate true 95% confidence limits, and a Bayesian method for deriving such limits is presented. For timbers with no sapwood, the addition of 12 years to the date of the final ring is shown to give a 95% confidence limit on the terminus post quem for felling. The further application of these methods is illustrated by calculation of the common felling date for timbers from the Great Kitchen at Windsor Castle.