Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

Wright, G.; Goodwin, P.

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method Thumbnail


Authors

G. Wright

P. Goodwin



Abstract

In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.

Citation

Wright, G., & Goodwin, P. (2009). Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(4), 813-825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Oct 1, 2009
Deposit Date Oct 29, 2009
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal International Journal of Forecasting
Print ISSN 0169-2070
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 25
Issue 4
Pages 813-825
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019
Keywords Scenario planning, Crisis management, Framing, Judgment, Heuristics and biases, Low predictability, Rare events.

Files




You might also like



Downloadable Citations