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Predictive modelling of Roman settlement in the Middle Tiber Valley.

Kay, S. J. and Witcher, R. E. (2010) 'Predictive modelling of Roman settlement in the Middle Tiber Valley.', Archeologia e Calcolatori., 20 (2009). pp. 277-290.


This paper discusses the results of an inductive predictive modelling experiment on Roman settlement data from the middle Tiber valley, Italy. The study forms part of the British School at Rome’s Tiber Valley Project, which since its inception in 1998 has been assessing the changing landscapes of the Tiber Valley from protohistory through to the medieval period. The aim of this present study is to broaden understanding of settlement patterns via predictive modelling, and in particular to evaluate unevenness in field survey coverage, survey bias and past settlement location preferences. The predictive modelling method chosen was an application of the statistical Weights of Evidence extension for ESRI ArcGIS. The results highlight associations between Roman settlement and environmental themes that provide moderate predictive potential and suggest that further experimentation might prove valuable.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:GIS, Predictive modelling, Roman settlement, Tiber valley.
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Record Created:06 Apr 2010 15:20
Last Modified:14 Dec 2011 10:00

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