Gregory, R.D. and Willis, S.G. and Jiguet, F. and Voříše, P. and Klvaňová, A. and van Strien, A. and Huntley, B. and Collingham, Y.C. and Couvet, D. and Green, R.E. (2009) 'An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.', PLoS ONE., 4 (3). e4678.
Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.
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|Publisher Web site:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004678|
|Publisher statement:||Copyright: © 2009 Gregory et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.|
|Date accepted:||No date available|
|Date deposited:||27 January 2012|
|Date of first online publication:||March 2009|
|Date first made open access:||No date available|
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