Egypt after Mubarak : the challenges ahead

Abstract

The events in Egypt in November 2011, and in preceding months, are stark reminders that the Middle East is changing in ways which a decade ago were rarely contemplated, either in the countries concerned or beyond them. A new solar system is emerging in the Arab world in which the gases are still swirling. In time, they will cool and solidify into more predictable and hopefully more productive forms—but how long that may take is far from certain. The core argument I presented at Durham University in November 2010 was that the coming decade would witness a leadership transition in Egypt whose impact — for better or worse — would be felt across the region. The demographic clock was ticking. The political, economic, and social outlook was uncertain. And political, economic, social and strategic issues were inter-related. The future of Egypt, and by extension, the Arab Middle East hinged on a conundrum – its capacity to change fast enough to meet emerging demographic and other pressures depended on empowerment, inclusiveness and growing equalization of opportunity.