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Subjective bayesian beliefs

Antoniou, C.; Harrison, G.W.; Lau, M.I.; Read, D.

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Authors

C. Antoniou

G.W. Harrison

D. Read



Abstract

A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule.

Citation

Antoniou, C., Harrison, G., Lau, M., & Read, D. (2015). Subjective bayesian beliefs. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 50(1), 35-54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5

Journal Article Type Article
Online Publication Date Feb 21, 2015
Publication Date Feb 21, 2015
Deposit Date Jun 4, 2014
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Print ISSN 0895-5646
Electronic ISSN 1573-0476
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 50
Issue 1
Pages 35-54
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5
Keywords Bayes’ Rule, Subjective beliefs, Learning, D03, D81, D83.
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1425956

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