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A robust data driven approach to quantifying common-cause failure in power networks.

Troffaes, Matthias C. M. and Blake, Simon (2013) 'A robust data driven approach to quantifying common-cause failure in power networks.', in ISIPTA ’13 : proceedings of the eighth international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications July 2-5 2013, Compiègne, France. , pp. 311-317.


The standard alpha-factor model for common cause failure assumes symmetry, in that all components must have identical failure rates. In this paper, we generalise the alpha-factor model to deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. For parameter estimation, we propose a set of conjugate Dirichlet-Gamma priors, and we discuss how posterior bounds can be obtained. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.

Item Type:Book chapter
Keywords:Robust, Alpha-factor, Failure, Reliability, Gamma, Dirichlet.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Date accepted:No date available
Date deposited:22 October 2014
Date of first online publication:July 2013
Date first made open access:No date available

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