Troffaes, Matthias C. M. and Blake, Simon (2013) 'A robust data driven approach to quantifying common-cause failure in power networks.', in ISIPTA ’13 : proceedings of the eighth international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications July 2-5 2013, Compiègne, France. , pp. 311-317.
The standard alpha-factor model for common cause failure assumes symmetry, in that all components must have identical failure rates. In this paper, we generalise the alpha-factor model to deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. For parameter estimation, we propose a set of conjugate Dirichlet-Gamma priors, and we discuss how posterior bounds can be obtained. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.
|Item Type:||Book chapter|
|Keywords:||Robust, Alpha-factor, Failure, Reliability, Gamma, Dirichlet.|
|Full text:||(AM) Accepted Manuscript|
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|Publisher Web site:||http://www.sipta.org/isipta13/index.php?id=paper&paper=031.html|
|Date accepted:||No date available|
|Date deposited:||22 October 2014|
|Date of first online publication:||July 2013|
|Date first made open access:||No date available|
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