Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Logistic Regression on Markov Chains for Crop Rotation Modelling

Troffaes, Matthias C.M.; Paton, Lewis

Logistic Regression on Markov Chains for Crop Rotation Modelling Thumbnail


Authors

Lewis Paton



Contributors

Fabio Cozman
Editor

Thierry Denoeux
Editor

Sebastien Destercke
Editor

Teddy Seidenfeld
Editor

Abstract

Often, in dynamical systems, such as farmer's crop choices, the dynamics is driven by external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and economy. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary Markov chain, where the transition probabilities are logistic functions of such external factors. We investigate the problem of estimating the parameters of the logistic model from data, using conjugate analysis with a fairly broad class of priors, to accommodate scarcity of data and lack of strong prior expert opinions. We show how maximum likelihood methods can be used to get bounds on the posterior mode of the parameters.

Citation

Troffaes, M. C., & Paton, L. (2013). Logistic Regression on Markov Chains for Crop Rotation Modelling. In F. Cozman, T. Denoeux, S. Destercke, & T. Seidenfeld (Eds.), ISIPTA ’13 : proceedings of the eighth international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications July 2-5 2013, Compiègne, France (329-336)

Conference Name ISIPTA'13: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications
Conference Location Compiegne, France
Publication Date Jul 5, 2013
Deposit Date May 29, 2013
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Pages 329-336
Book Title ISIPTA ’13 : proceedings of the eighth international symposium on imprecise probability : theories and applications July 2-5 2013, Compiègne, France.
Keywords Logistic regression, Markov chain, Robust Bayesian, Conjugate, Maximum likelihood, Crop.
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1155709
Publisher URL http://www.sipta.org/isipta13/index.php?id=paper&paper=033.html

Files




You might also like



Downloadable Citations