Imprecise inference for warranty contract analysis

Utkin, L.V.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Gurov, S.V.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.011

Imprecise inference for warranty contract analysis

Utkin, L.V.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Gurov, S.V.

Authors

L.V. Utkin

Professor Frank Coolen frank.coolen@durham.ac.uk
Professor

S.V. Gurov

Abstract

This paper presents an investigation into generalised Bayesian analysis of warranty contracts, using sets of prior distributions within the theory of imprecise probability. Explicit expressions are derived for optimal lower and upper bounds for the expected profit for the manufacturer of a product, corresponding to an imprecise negative binomial model for which two sets of prior distributions are studied. The results can be used to set a maximum value of compensation such that the manufacturer׳s expected profit remains positive, under vague prior knowledge.

Citation

Utkin, L., Coolen, F., & Gurov, S. (2015). Imprecise inference for warranty contract analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 138, 31-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.011

Journal Article Type	Article
Publication Date	Jun 1, 2015
Deposit Date	Feb 16, 2015
Publicly Available Date	Feb 24, 2015
Journal	Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Print ISSN	0951-8320
Publisher	Elsevier
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	138
Pages	31-39
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.011
Keywords	Generalised Bayesian analysis, Imprecise probability, Lower and upper expected profit, Warranties.

Files

Accepted Journal Article (416 Kb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 138, June 2015, 10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.011.