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A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.

Paton, Lewis and Troffaes, Matthias C. M. and Boatman, Nigel and Hussein, Mohamud and Hart, Andy (2015) 'A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.', in ISIPTA ’15 : proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability : Theories and Applications, 20-24 July 2015, Pescara, Italy. , pp. 217-226.


We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem.

Item Type:Book chapter
Keywords:Multinomial logistic regression, Stochastic process, Robust Bayesian, Conjugate, Maximum likelihood, Crop, Decision.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Date accepted:19 May 2015
Date deposited:17 June 2015
Date of first online publication:July 2015
Date first made open access:No date available

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