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Modelling uncertainty in pore pressure using dynamic Bayesian networks.

Oughton, R.H. and Wooff, D.A. and Swarbrick, R.E. and Hobbs, R.W. (2015) 'Modelling uncertainty in pore pressure using dynamic Bayesian networks.', 77th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2015 : Earth Science for Energy and Environment. Madrid, Spain, 1-4 June 2015.


Pore pressure prediction is vital when drilling a well, as unexpected overpressure can cause drilling challenges and uncontrolled hydrocarbon leakage. Predictions often use porosity-based techniques, relying on an idealised compaction trend and using a single wireline log as a proxy for porosity, ignoring the many sources of uncertainty and the system's multivariate nature. We propose a sequential dynamic Bayesian network (SDBN) as a solution to these issues. The SDBN models the quantities in the system (such as pressures, porosity, lithology, wireline logs etc.), capturing their joint behaviour using conditional probability distributions. A compaction model is central to the SDBN, relating porosity to vertical effective stress with uncertainty, so that the logic resembles that of the equivalent depth method. Given data, the probability distribution for each quantity is updated, so that instead of a single-valued prediction for pore pressure, the SDBN gives a full specification of uncertainty that takes into account the whole system, knowledge and data. We can use this to analyse the model's sensitivity to its parameters, through sensitivity analysis. The vertical correlation in the SDBN makes it suitable for real-time analysis of logging while drilling data. We show examples using real well data.

Item Type:Conference item (Paper)
Additional Information:Session: Pore pressure & AVO-AVA Case Histories
Full text:Publisher-imposed embargo
(AO) Author's Original
File format - PDF (Copyright agreement prohibits open access to the full-text)
Publisher Web site:
Date accepted:27 February 2015
Date deposited:No date available
Date of first online publication:01 June 2015
Date first made open access:No date available

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