We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. By continuing to browse this repository, you give consent for essential cookies to be used. You can read more about our Privacy and Cookie Policy.

Durham Research Online
You are in:

Predicting what will happen when we act. What counts for warrant?

Cartwright, N. (2011) 'Predicting what will happen when we act. What counts for warrant?', Preventive medicine., 53 (4-5). pp. 221-224.


To what extent do the results of randomized controlled trials inform our predictions about the effectiveness of potential policy interventions? This crucial question is often overlooked in discussions about evidence-based policy. The view I defend is that the arguments that lead from the claim that a program works somewhere to a prediction about the effectiveness of this program as it will be implemented here rests on many premises, most of which cannot be justified by the results of randomized controlled trials. Randomized controlled trials only provide indirect evidence for effectiveness, and we need much more than just randomized- controlled-trial results to make reliable predictions.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:Effectiveness, Randomized controlled trial, Warrant, Evidence-based policy, Argument.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
Download PDF
Publisher Web site:
Publisher statement:© 2011 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:No date available
Date deposited:21 September 2015
Date of first online publication:October 2011
Date first made open access:No date available

Save or Share this output

Look up in GoogleScholar