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Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris; Lauderdale, Benjamin E.; Vivyan, Nick

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Authors

Chris Hanretty

Benjamin E. Lauderdale



Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Citation

Hanretty, C., Lauderdale, B. E., & Vivyan, N. (2016). Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41, 239-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 27, 2015
Online Publication Date Dec 15, 2015
Publication Date Mar 1, 2016
Deposit Date Sep 29, 2015
Publicly Available Date Jun 15, 2017
Journal Electoral Studies
Print ISSN 0261-3794
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 41
Pages 239-243
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
Keywords National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.

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