Hanretty, Chris and Lauderdale, Benjamin E. and Vivyan, Nick (2016) 'Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting.', Electoral studies., 41 . pp. 239-243.
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.
|Keywords:||National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.|
|Full text:||(AM) Accepted Manuscript|
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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|Publisher Web site:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019|
|Publisher statement:||© 2015 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/|
|Date accepted:||27 September 2015|
|Date deposited:||05 October 2015|
|Date of first online publication:||15 December 2015|
|Date first made open access:||15 June 2017|
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