We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. By continuing to browse this repository, you give consent for essential cookies to be used. You can read more about our Privacy and Cookie Policy.

Durham Research Online
You are in:

Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting.

Hanretty, Chris and Lauderdale, Benjamin E. and Vivyan, Nick (2016) 'Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting.', Electoral studies., 41 . pp. 239-243.


We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
Download PDF
Publisher Web site:
Publisher statement:© 2015 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:27 September 2015
Date deposited:05 October 2015
Date of first online publication:15 December 2015
Date first made open access:15 June 2017

Save or Share this output

Look up in GoogleScholar