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Durham Research Online
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Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting.

Hanretty, Chris and Lauderdale, Benjamin E. and Vivyan, Nick (2016) 'Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting.', Electoral studies., 41 . pp. 239-243.

Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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Status:Peer-reviewed
Publisher Web site:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
Publisher statement:© 2015 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Date accepted:27 September 2015
Date deposited:05 October 2015
Date of first online publication:15 December 2015
Date first made open access:15 June 2017

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