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Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.

Carvalho, Rui and Buzna, Lubos and Bono, Flavio and Masera, Marcelo and Arrowsmith, David K. and Helbing, Dirk (2014) 'Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.', PLoS ONE., 9 (3). e90265.

Abstract

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution.
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Status:Peer-reviewed
Publisher Web site:http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090265
Publisher statement:Copyright: © 2014 Carvalho et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Date accepted:27 January 2014
Date deposited:15 April 2016
Date of first online publication:12 March 2014
Date first made open access:No date available

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