Eugeni, S. (2016) 'Global imbalances in the XIX, XX and the XXI centuries.', Economics letters., 145 . pp. 69-72.
We establish a new stylized fact: while the current account and the trade balances are positively correlated during the second globalization (1990s–2010s), they were negatively correlated during the first globalization (1870s–1910s). We show that the reason behind is that the world interest rate is currently low relatively to the world growth rate due to a “global saving glut”, while this was not the case during the first globalization.
|Full text:||(AM) Accepted Manuscript|
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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|Publisher Web site:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.05.018|
|Publisher statement:||© 2016 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/|
|Date accepted:||18 May 2016|
|Date deposited:||07 June 2016|
|Date of first online publication:||01 June 2016|
|Date first made open access:||01 December 2017|
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