Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy

Sheehy, S.; Edwards, G.; Dent, C.J.; Kazemtabrizi, B.; Troffaes, M.C.M.; Tindemans, S.

doi:10.1109/pmaps.2016.7764199

Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy

Sheehy, S.; Edwards, G.; Dent, C.J.; Kazemtabrizi, B.; Troffaes, M.C.M.; Tindemans, S.

Authors

Sarah Sheehy sarah.sheehy2@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy

G. Edwards

C.J. Dent

Dr Behzad Kazemtabrizi behzad.kazemtabrizi@durham.ac.uk
Associate Professor

Professor Matthias Troffaes matthias.troffaes@durham.ac.uk
Professor

S. Tindemans

Abstract

This paper presents results on variability of out-turn shortfalls about the expected value indices which are usually presented in resource adequacy studies, for a range of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) levels and installed wind capacities in a test system generally representative of future Great Britain system scenarios. While the details of results will clearly vary between systems, one very general conclusion is possible. In the results presented, for a given LOLE level, the probability of very severe out-turn in a future peak season is much greater at high installed wind capacity. Thus for this system, as the installed wind capacity increases, a constant level of LOLE cannot be taken as an indicator of an unchanging overall risk profile of the system. This further demonstrates that in any system, LOLE cannot be assumed to be a good summary statistic of risk profile as the installed variable generation (VG) capacity increases, and that it might be necessary to reconsider the near-universal use of expected value risk indices as the main headline indices in utility adequacy studies.

Citation

Sheehy, S., Edwards, G., Dent, C., Kazemtabrizi, B., Troffaes, M., & Tindemans, S. (2016). Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy. In 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) : Beijing, China, 16-20 October 2016 ; proceedings (1-6). https://doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2016.7764199

Conference Name	International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
Conference Location	Beijing, China
Start Date	Oct 16, 2016
End Date	Oct 20, 2016
Acceptance Date	Jun 15, 2016
Online Publication Date	Dec 5, 2016
Publication Date	Dec 5, 2016
Deposit Date	May 28, 2016
Publicly Available Date	Jul 15, 2016
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages	1-6
Book Title	2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) : Beijing, China, 16-20 October 2016 ; proceedings.
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2016.7764199

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