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Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy.

Sheehy, S. and Edwards, G. and Dent, C. J. and Kazemtabrizi, B. and Troffaes, M. C. M. and Tindemans, S. (2016) 'Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy.', in 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) : Beijing, China, 16-20 October 2016 ; proceedings. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, pp. 1-6.


This paper presents results on variability of out-turn shortfalls about the expected value indices which are usually presented in resource adequacy studies, for a range of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) levels and installed wind capacities in a test system generally representative of future Great Britain system scenarios. While the details of results will clearly vary between systems, one very general conclusion is possible. In the results presented, for a given LOLE level, the probability of very severe out-turn in a future peak season is much greater at high installed wind capacity. Thus for this system, as the installed wind capacity increases, a constant level of LOLE cannot be taken as an indicator of an unchanging overall risk profile of the system. This further demonstrates that in any system, LOLE cannot be assumed to be a good summary statistic of risk profile as the installed variable generation (VG) capacity increases, and that it might be necessary to reconsider the near-universal use of expected value risk indices as the main headline indices in utility adequacy studies.

Item Type:Book chapter
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Publisher statement:© 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Date accepted:15 June 2016
Date deposited:15 July 2016
Date of first online publication:05 December 2016
Date first made open access:No date available

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