Perceived risks of mountain landslides in Italy : stated choices for subjective risk reductions.

Abstract

Mountain landslides have occurred in countries such as Italy regularly throughout recorded history, often resulting in fatalities. Because of this, policies that would reduce landslide fatality risk need to be carefully formulated. As a first step in the exploration of preferences for these risk-reducing policies, we examine public perceptions of risk for landslides and related events. Subjective probabilities for others who might die in a landslide, as well as one’s own subjective probability of death, are elicited for a sample of visitors and residents of a region in Italy prone to landslides. We present one portion of the sample with scientific information and allow them to update their risk estimate if they so choose, allowing the role of such information to be tested. The subjective probabilities are then used to construct risk-related attributes in a pivot-design version of a conventional stated choice model. Larger risk changes as departures from the baseline risk are found to be significant in explaining choices.