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Climate change will increase naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

Dullinger, I.; Wessely, J.; Bossdorf, O.; Dawson, W.; Essl, F.; Gattringer, A.; Klonner, G.; Kreft, H.; Kuttner, M.; Moser, D.; Pergl, J.; Pysek, P.; Thuiller, W.; van Kleunen, M.; Weigelt, P.; Winter, M.; Dullinger, S.

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Authors

I. Dullinger

J. Wessely

O. Bossdorf

F. Essl

A. Gattringer

G. Klonner

H. Kreft

M. Kuttner

D. Moser

J. Pergl

P. Pysek

W. Thuiller

M. van Kleunen

P. Weigelt

M. Winter

S. Dullinger



Abstract

Aim: Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods: We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results: Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Citation

Dullinger, I., Wessely, J., Bossdorf, O., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Gattringer, A., …Dullinger, S. (2017). Climate change will increase naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26(1), 43-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12512

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 25, 2016
Online Publication Date Aug 25, 2016
Publication Date Jan 1, 2017
Deposit Date Jul 28, 2016
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Global Ecology and Biogeography
Print ISSN 1466-822X
Electronic ISSN 1466-8238
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 26
Issue 1
Pages 43-53
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12512

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Advance online version © 2016 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.





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